Australian Childcare Occupancy: Weekly Review

Weekly Research Review — 3 to 7 October 2026

This Week’s Headline

Goodstart has signed a conditional deal to take over 31 Edge Early Learning centres from administrator KordaMentha. The other 33 Edge centres are still on the market, and the deal comes as landlord Arena REIT reports lower occupancy across its childcare portfolio.

Key Metrics at a Glance

31 — Edge Early Learning centres covered by the conditional heads of agreement with Goodstart (Business News Australia)
33 — Edge centres still being marketed for sale by the administrators (Business News Australia)
76.7% — Arena REIT’s average stabilised portfolio occupancy at March 2026, down from 79.3% a year earlier (The Sector)
119 / 12 — centres put on notice over safety compliance and, of those, centres that closed voluntarily or lost funding (The Sector)
~23% — increase in low-income children who can now get subsidised three-day-a-week care under the 3 Day Guarantee (The Sector)

Closures & Suspensions

The main story this week is the Edge Early Learning administration. KordaMentha was appointed voluntary administrator on 25 August after Edge stopped paying rent on its Arena REIT properties in early August. On 7 October the administrators confirmed a conditional heads of agreement for Goodstart to take 31 of Edge’s 64 centres across Queensland, South Australia and the ACT. Due diligence is still under way and the financial terms have not been disclosed. Twenty of the 31 centres sit on Arena-owned properties. The remaining 33 centres are still being marketed for sale, so families and staff at those services face more uncertainty.

At the federal level, Education Minister Jason Clare said 119 centres had been put on notice over safety concerns. Of those, 59 have fixed the problems and 12 have either closed voluntarily or had their funding cut.

Enrolment & Occupancy Data

Arena REIT is the largest childcare landlord, so its numbers give a useful read on occupancy. It reported average stabilised occupancy of 76.7% at March 2026, down from 79.3% a year earlier. In Victoria, the government-run Early Learning Victoria said it has opened 18 centres in its first 18 months, eight of them regional, with more than 1,200 children enrolled. It plans to have 31 centres by 2028 and 50 by 2032. For context (not published this week), the Department of Education’s June-quarter Child Care Subsidy data, reported on 23 September, showed 1,393,620 children in care, down 2.1% year on year. Over the same period, centre-based day care services increased by 279 to 9,963.

Policy & Regulatory Updates

Minister Clare said education ministers will decide on the structure of a national Early Education and Care Commission in 2027. He said the 3 Day Guarantee, which has entitled eligible families to 72 hours of subsidised care per fortnight since 5 January 2026, has given about 23% more low-income children access to subsidised three-day-a-week care. He also said 46 locations have been announced under the $1 billion Building Early Education Fund. Separately, Queensland has introduced legislation that would make registration mandatory for early childhood teachers in centre-based services from 1 July 2028. The bill has not yet passed.

Workforce & Cost Pressures

Minister Clare credited the 15% wage increase with cutting job vacancies by about 30% and adding around 20,000 educators nationally. He said the increase is worth about $13,000 a year for educators and $21,000 for early childhood teachers. Employers also need to prepare for the Fair Work Commission’s expanded MyFWC portal, which is expected in mid-October. All new dismissal cases will be handled through the portal, and each person who needs access must have an individual account with multi-factor authentication. Shared mailboxes cannot hold accounts.

Investment & Property Market

Arena REIT confirmed a September-quarter distribution of 4.50 cents per security and suspended its distribution reinvestment plan. Edge accounts for about 14% of Arena’s annual rental income. Arena shares rose more than 14% on news of the Goodstart deal, and the company is now deciding whether to consent to the lease assignments. In Melbourne, CBRE has started an expressions-of-interest leasing campaign for a 78-place centre site in Richmond, which is subject to council approval.

What This Means for Independent Centre Operators

When a large operator changes hands, some families start looking at other options. If an Edge centre or another centre in transition is near you, make sure enquiries are answered within hours and that tour times are easy to book online. Check that your Google Business Profile is complete and has recent photos, current hours and fresh replies to reviews, because unsettled parents compare centres there first. A small local search or Meta campaign aimed at the suburbs around affected centres can reach those families while they are deciding.

Occupancy is falling at the portfolio level and new supply keeps opening, so families have more choice. Base your messaging on what parents are asking about this week: stability, child safety and qualified educators. Explain what the 3 Day Guarantee means in practice for families paying fees at your centre, and state your safety and quality ratings plainly. Families are paying close attention to safety, so a clear, confident message on it can help you win enrolments.

Australian Childcare Occupancy: Weekly Review — 3 to 7 October 2026