Weekly Research Review – 16 October to 5 November 2026

This review covers 16 October to 5 November 2026. No weekly review was published on 23 or 30 October, so this edition covers the full three-week gap in one post.

This Week’s Headline

Goodstart has confirmed it will buy 24 of the collapsed Edge Early Learning centres, while a new ELACCA report counts 152 long day care closures since 2024 and 276 more services at risk of closing within 12 months.

Key Metrics at a Glance

  • 152: LDC services closed by 13 large providers, 2024 to 2026 YTD (ELACCA)
  • 276: Services at risk of closing within 12 months (ELACCA)
  • 30,280: Fewer children in approved care, June qtr 2026 vs 2025
  • 24: Edge centres Goodstart will buy (15 QLD, 9 SA)
  • +8.2%: Goodstart FY26 wage costs, year on year

Closures & Suspensions

The Early Learning and Care Council of Australia (ELACCA) released a report on 16 October based on a survey of 13 of its 16 member organisations. Those providers closed 152 long day care services across 2024, 2025 and 2026 so far, and closures in 2026 alone are already nearly double the total for all of 2025. About three quarters (76%) of the closed services were for-profit, and 13% were rated Exceeding the National Quality Standard, so the closures are not only about poor quality. The report lists 276 more services (221 long day care and 55 preschool or kindergarten) as at risk of closing within 12 months, and 99% of them are being kept open by cross-subsidy from elsewhere in the provider’s business.

Smaller closures continued. ABC News reported on 29 October that the Injinoo Child Care Centre in Far North Queensland has closed after losing its funding.

Enrolment & Occupancy Data

The largest operator has now put softer demand on record. Goodstart’s FY26 annual report, covered by The Sector on 26 October, says occupancy fell year on year across its network, with demand softer from January to June 2026. Goodstart still posted a $10.9 million surplus across its 666 centres.

A sponsored article in The Sector on 27 October repeated the June quarter 2026 Child Care Subsidy figures: 30,280 fewer children in approved care than a year earlier, a fall in every state and territory, while 279 more centre-based day care services opened. It also cited an estimate that national occupancy fell from 81.8% in December 2023 to 76.1% in December 2025. These are national estimates, and local markets vary.

Policy & Regulatory Updates

Education ministers met on 2 November to consider a proposed national early childhood education and care commission, which could coordinate where services are located and plan the workforce. They also considered findings from a CCTV assessment involving more than 300 services, which is meant to inform nationally consistent guidance rather than a national rollout. No decisions had been reported at the time of writing.

In New South Wales, the 2027 Fee Relief for Long Day Care program will replace Start Strong for Long Day Care from 1 January 2027. It will pay up to $2,625 per eligible child aged four and over, and the first quarterly payment is expected by 18 December 2026. On 5 November, The Sector reported that a Sydney family day care service that received about $4 million in Child Care Subsidy since January 2024 is under investigation over suspected false claims.

Workforce & Cost Pressures

Goodstart’s annual report shows how fast costs are rising: wages up 8.2%, consumables up 6.7% and other expenses up 11.8%. On the positive side, teacher turnover fell to its lowest level in eight years.

Investment & Property Market

The Edge Early Learning administration is close to being resolved. On 3 November Goodstart confirmed it will buy 24 Edge centres, 15 in Queensland and 9 in South Australia, after dropping seven of the 31 it originally looked at. Two of the 24 are currently closed and will reopen in 2027. The deal takes Goodstart to about 690 centres. Landlord Arena REIT said on 2 November that it now has sale agreements with new operators for 22 of its centres, and 16 of Goodstart’s 24 centres are Arena-owned. For investors, centres with a viable operator still hold their value, but the sector is consolidating towards larger and better-funded providers.

What This Means for Independent Centre Operators

There are fewer children in care, more centres than ever, and big providers are closing services and selling them to each other. In that market, enrolments go to the centres families can find and trust. When a nearby centre closes or changes hands, families start looking at short notice. Independent centres that keep their Google Business Profile, Starting Blocks listing and website up to date, show real vacancies, and respond to enquiries within hours are the ones that win those families.

This is a good time to check which centres near you have closed, been sold or been named in ELACCA-style risk discussions, and to run local search and Meta campaigns aimed at those suburbs. In New South Wales, the 2027 fee relief changes give you a timely reason to talk to families about kindy-year savings. Families are watching quality and safety closely, so make your rating, safety practices and educator stability clear in every ad and on every tour.

Sources This Week

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